Destination Travel Trends School Breaks and Record Rates are Already Shifting December Volume

What’s Happening?

A pre-Christmas deficit in occupancy is quickly taking shape, while a post New Years boom is also materializing. While we anticipated both, they may not be getting the attention they deserve as suppliers hold extreme room rates in December.

Why’s It Happening?

Christmas breaks, especially for K-12 students, are starting later this year than last, with many schools still in session right up to the holiday weekend. But breaks aren’t any shorter, and that means they’re returning to school later in the New Year, driving fill for early January. However, it’s not a 1:1 offset, with December declines greater than January gains, and extreme room rates in December are a likely contributor. Look for similar shifts through the balance of the 2022/23 school year.

Do We Care?

Yes. A significant part of winter revenue is captured in the weeks before and through the Christmas Holiday. A balanced sacrifice of some rate to capture bookings could be the advantage that starts the season with a win versus the comp set and avoids an early revenue deficit.