Trends
Along with abysmal snowfall and record-breaking warm temperatures during March, economic news conspired to continue dragging down the 2025-26 winter season. And despite a weak booking pace, western mountain lodging properties in 17 resort destinations are looking at strong early numbers for the upcoming summer as of March 31. Winter rates mostly held steady during the month while summer rates rose appreciably. The results were released this morning by DestiMetrics* in their monthly Market Briefing issued by Inntopia and the data revealed that occupancy continued to remain sharply different between two subsets of data– Colorado and Utah (CO/UT) and the “rest of the West,” (RoW)—California, Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. However, as warming temperatures arrived in March for the RoW, their booking pace declined for the first time since December. Also evaluated in the Briefing was relevant economic news. A positive update about job creation was the sole bright spot in economic news as Wall Street took a big dive, inflation moved up significantly, and consumers were cautious.
“Even though we still have one more month of winter to include in the seasonal data, the widespread early resort closures triggered by such challenging conditions means that we’ve essentially reached the end of the season, and there is no hope for improved numbers as we run out the clock,” conceded Tom Foley, director of Business Intelligence for Inntopia. “To be fair, some destinations have done better than others and the northern Rockies, the Sierras, and parts of the Cascades all had stretches of having a significant amount of terrain open. But as resorts wrap up this season on a mostly disappointing note, the focus has turned to building on the early summer momentum which is pretty strong at this point.”
Actual March results
Actual occupancy during March for the entire region dropped a significant 12 percent in a year-over-year comparison to last year. The Average Daily Rate (ADR) slipped down 2.2 percent and the combination led to a 13.9 percent decline in aggregated monthly revenue.
Winter season occupancy drops considerably, ADR clings to slight gains
Combining actuals and on-the-books data, occupancy for the full winter season from November through April across the West is down 6.7 percent with declines in all six months. But despite the snow and temperature challenges that persisted through the month, rate resilience continued with ADR managing to eke out a 1.3 percent year-over-year increase with growth in all six months except March which finished down 2.2 percent. However, those slightly higher daily rates were unable to offset the substantially lower occupancy so aggregated seasonal revenues are down 5.6 percent with decreases in all six months.
“Rate strength was a bit of a double-edged sword this season,” added Foley. “While some consumers found it hard to justify the rates considering the conditions, those that did travel paid a little more this year than last for their lodging, which helped keep the revenue numbers better,” he continued. “It is not necessarily great news for travelers, but it was important for mountain economies that depend on supplier revenue to drive their businesses.”
Booking pace tumbles during March
Occupancy booking pace declined in both the CO/UT and RoW regions during March. Bookings made in March for arrivals in March through August declined a sharp 17.9 percent compared to the same time last year. This is the second steepest drop in booking in the last 12 months and the sixth consecutive decline—attributed in large part to the unappealing slope conditions in March and April. “Much of it comes from a decline in the RoW, which so far has been the more reliable region for booking pace this year. But when warm temperatures and deteriorating conditions emerged in March, their booking pace flipped into negative territory for the first time since December, compounding the weak paced recorded in CO/UT,” explained Foley.
Summer continues to improve
Occupancy on-the-books for May through October is continuing to see improved strength– up four percent compared to this time last year with increases in all six months. ADR for the summer is up a strong 6.5 percent with increases in all months. Growth in occupancy and rates is currently driving an early revenue gain of 10.8 percent.
The economy
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged 5.4 percent in March driven by the US-Iran war and closed the month at its lowest level since August 2025. “Investors clearly reacted very negatively to the closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the soaring price of oil,” observed Foley. “The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) index which is more closely tied to consumers’ retirement and savings accounts was down 5.1 percent causing some angst. Meanwhile, those high oil prices are being felt at the gas pump and the cost of shipping goods is going up, which will soon start appearing in broader inflationary price increases,” he continued.
In a switch, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) released by the Conference Board and the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) from the University of Michigan went in slightly different directions during March as the CCI edged up .08 points while the CSI dropped six percent to reach its lowest level since last December. Respondents to the CCI had a more favorable attitude about current conditions while CSI respondents had a less optimistic outlook. In both surveys, older consumers were more pessimistic than their younger counterparts.
Job creation and the Unemployment Rate improved during March with employers adding 178,000 new jobs and exceeding analysts’ expectations. Unemployment dipped down to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent while wages edged up 3.5 percent year-over-year–but are lower than the 3.8 percent recorded in February. In hospitality, the Accommodations sector added 7,900 jobs and the Food Services added a strong 21,500 jobs after posting losses last month.
The National Inflation Rate and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose dramatically with consumer prices jumping 0.9 percentage points from February and the national inflation rate is now at 3.3 percent, its highest level since May 2024. Prices increases were triggered by the war in the Middle East, driving gas prices up 24.1 percent.
Watching closely
The dollars and cents for winter once again declined as there were 62,951 nights booked in March for arrivals from March 1 to April 30, which is a dramatic 31,174 fewer nights than were booked last March for the same period. This was the third consecutive month that winter ADR for bookings made in March was down—23.5 percent. Reservations for arrivals in that period were worth $20.1 million this year compared to last year’s 39.3 million. “These two steep drops delivered a shockingly large hit to revenue for the final two months of the season,” acknowledged Foley.
The dollars and cents for summer are moving up as of March 31. Room nights for arrivals from May 1 to Sept 30 are up a solid 6.5 percent over the same time last year with ADR up 3.3 percent. The stronger occupancy and rates are currently showing an on-the-books increase of $7.7 million or 9.9 percent in summer revenue booked during March.
International winter demand improved slightly in March due to a modest boost in bookings by Canadians. Overall bookings from international markets are down 27 percent year-over-year compared to last month when they were down 29.5 percent. Although most of the improvement was due to Canadians, visits remain down a profound 30.1 percent for the season. International visits for summer are also down slightly but relatively stable. But when compared to the pre-tariff period, Canadian visits are down 43.3 percent and western European visitation is down 15.8 percent.
All pricing terciles lost ground during March in occupancy and rate but were mostly balanced between the three categories—Economy, Moderate, and Luxury. Economy properties, up to $400/night, have been the most stable and are down 6.4 percent in occupancy and 6.6 percent in revenue but have lost the least ground since November. Occupancy at Moderate properties, priced between $401 and $749/night and the Luxury category at $750/night and up both sank lower in occupancy and revenues than the Economy properties.
“This winter has definitely become a slog to the finish line with very few, if any changes expected in the final month,” said Foley. “At this point, everyone is turning their attention to the summer months and hoping the strong early foundation we are tracking continues as some pent-up demand seems to be playing a role in the strong occupancy and rates were seeing thus far. That said, the rising price of gas as the summer season is getting ready to launch, the anxiety about the Middle East conflict, some lingering long-term price sensitivity, and an underpinning of worry about forest fires following such a dry winter could all have an impact on how this summer unfolds,” Foley concluded.
