If your Net Promoter Score is X, can I predict how likely you are to return to my resort?

With Net Promoter Score on the brain from last week’s analysis against length of stay, we wanted to dig a little deeper on what behaviors come along with a high or low NPS. The next one that we decided to look at was return rate: if your NPS was 10 instead of 4, how much more likely are you to come back? Here’s what we discovered.

The Goods
For this analysis we took data from 9,500 bookings from 7 resorts that gave a post-departure NPS score during the 2010/11 winter season. If they booked another vacation by the end of the 2011/12 season, they were put into the “returners” group. Simple as that. Here’s what we found:

At 10, the return rate is just a hair shy of 30%. At 5, it’s been cut in half. At 2, it’s below 6%. Interestingly enough, those that had an NPS of 1 were more likely to return than those with a 2 or 3, perhaps an indicator of successful “damage control” done with guests who had especially bad experiences during their stay.

What This Means
When we look at these numbers, we can’t help but think of our booking reminder example from a few weeks ago where one email was enough to change behavior.

The people with an NPS of 10 had a great time and are very likely to return, yet 70% of them do not. Like a booking reminder, an email campaign or promotion geared toward those that had an awesome time but haven’t booked again might be a simple, automated way to boost that number higher and higher.