Skip to Main Content
📖 Get a free, printed copy of our book →

Trends If I came last year and the year before, how likely am I to come next year?

photo of the author Gregg Blanchard

What is the value of traditions? If I came to your resort last year, but didn’t come the year before, how likely am I to return compared to someone that did make the trip both years? What about someone who comes 3 years in a row? Or 4, 5, or 6? That’s the question we had, so we answered it.

The Goods
To find an answer we took reservation data (excluding owners) for 8 different resorts for the last 7 years. From these guests, we found those that had streaks leading up to various season and the number of those guests who then came the following year. Here’s how it looked:

If someone came to your resort last season, but didn’t the winter before, there’s about a 12% chance they’ll return next year. If they’ve come two years in a row (but not the year prior), there’s a 34% chance they’ll return the next year. After 3 consecutive years, the likelihood they’ll return is just under 50%. After 6 years, there’s more than a 75% chance they’ll return the following season.

What This Means
The hardest hurdle in this series seems to be the first: getting guests with a streak of only 1 year to turn it into 2. This is also, by far, the largest group. Depending on your current strategy, this could be either an opportunity or a challenge.

However, if one of the resorts in this sample increased the return rate of this season’s 1-year guests from 12% to 15%, they would have 100 extra reservations next winter made by people that are now 3x as likely to make it 3 in a row than they were to make it 2.

Next Week…
A new Stash post comes our next week: same time same place. Don’t want to miss a beat? Stick your email below and it’ll be waiting in your inbox on Tuesday morning.

Free Book The Ultimate Guide to Resort Marketing Automation

An illustrated guide to 26 campaigns that generate loyalty, revenue, and satisfaction. Get a free, printed copy for your team.

    Free Printed Copy →         Free Digital Copy →    
collage of pages from the book

Have a question? Just ask.

photo of tyler maynard

Tyler Maynard
SVP of Business Development
Ski / Golf / Destination Research
Schedule a Call with Tyler→

photo of doug kellogg

Doug Kellogg
Director of Business Development
Hospitality / Attractions
Schedule a Call with Doug→

If you're a current Inntopia customer, contact support directly for the quickest response →

Our New, Free Book A No-Nonsense Guide to
Growing Resort Ecommerce Revenue

Why the road to growing ecommerce revenue may start with a decrease in conversion rate.

    Free Download →    
screenshot of Our New, Free Book